Weimar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

210
FXUS66 KSTO 111003
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
203 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through this morning and afternoon, before
an active weather pattern change will bring periods of
accumulating mountain snow, rain, and breezy winds starting
tonight and continuing into next week.

.DISCUSSION...

Areas of patchy fog are once again being observed on GOES
Satellite, with visibilities down to 3/4 mile at Mather AP and 1
mile at Sacramento International. Lower visibilities are
expected to continue through at least the morning commute, so
give yourself extra time for traveling and use your low beam
headlights if you encounter any areas of dense fog.

This morning and afternoon will be the last of mostly clear and
dry weather for at least the next week or so, as a series of
weather systems move into the area. Our first system has trended
wetter and forecast precipitation totals have increased. Along
with a more southerly forecast track of the trough, a narrow band
of modest IVT values will accompany the system. Precipitation is
forecast to start this evening in the Coastal Range then quickly
move through the rest of the area by night. As mentioned earlier,
precipitation totals have trended higher, with the Valley now
forecast to receive 0.25 to 1.00" inches, with the higher totals
north of I-80 and in the foothills. Snowfall totals have
increased, with locations above 5000 feet are now forecast to
get 5 to 12 inches, locally higher amounts at peaks. As such,
consideration is being given regarding upgrading the Winter
Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Snowfall rates of
up to one inch, locally up two inches will be possible when
dynamic lifting is at it`s maximum. Heaviest snow timeframe in
the Sierra Nevada and the southern Cascades is expected early
Thursday morning through around 11 AM. Snow levels begin at
around 4000 feet tonight and climb up to around 4500-5000 feet
and higher in the early Thursday morning hours.

We will have a short break in action Thursday night into Friday
morning, before another weather system moves into the area.
Precipitation will once again begin along the Coastal Range and
the northern Sacramento Valley, Burney Basin, southern Cascades
before spreading over the rest of the Valley and Sierra Nevada by
Friday night. Rainfall and snowfall are expected to continue
through Saturday as well, and totals for this second wave of
precipitation increased as well. Rainfall totals range from
around 0.50 to 3.50" inches for the Valley, with the highest
totals again in the northern Sacramento Valley. Snowfall totals
now range around 10-20 inches for elevations greater than 6000
feet. Snow levels are forecast at around 4500 feet at
precipitation onset, then climb to around 5500-6000 feet
Saturday. Along with the rainfall/snowfall, periods of gusty winds
will develop Saturday morning through the evening. The National
Blend of Models projects around a 30-80% chance of wind speeds
greater than 40 mph in the central and northern Sacramento Valley.
Sierra and foothill winds have probabilities of around 40-80% for
winds speeds reaching at least 50 mph. Precipitation will start
to taper off Saturday evening then transition to scattered rain
showers and snow showers Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty remains
regarding the track of this second system and the potential
precipitation impacts. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

With the active weather pattern, resultant high temperatures will
fall into the upper 40s to upper 50s across the Valley. Overnight
low temperatures should hover in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with
cloud coverage helping to keep overnight lows above freezing.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...

Lingering showers possible Sunday, mainly in the foothills and
mountains. Upper ridging then progged through interior NorCal late
Sunday into early Monday. Next Pacific frontal system brings more
widespread precipitation Monday into Monday night. Dry Tuesday
into Wednesday as upper ridging builds inland with some locally
gusty north to east wind.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR possible in BR/FG in S Sac/N San
Joaquin Vlys and Delta area til 18z, otherwise VFR til 06z Thu,
then deteriorating conditions as Pac storm moves inland. Sfc wind
generally below 12 kts thru 12z Thu.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$

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